UK hydrogen pricing mapped: from £10/kg today to £6 by 2030 — but only in the right places

Hydrogen analyst Tim Harper, founder of Element 2 among other ventures, has published a detailed pricing model for the UK hydrogen market from 2026 to 2035. The core message: there is no such thing as the hydrogen price. Where you refuel, how much you refuel, and what contract you hold makes more difference than the production cost of the hydrogen itself.

Four price layers, not one

Harper distinguishes four levels that are too often conflated in public debate: ex-plant price, delivered price, dispensed price and effective price after subsidies and certificates. For 2026, the model estimates the contracted depot dispensed price at £9.50-10.50 per kilogram. The effective price for fleets eligible for Renewable Transport Fuel Certificates (RTFCs) can come in at £8.00-9.50 per kilogram.

2030 price outlook: it depends

The model projects a wide range for 2030. The best captive clusters — think bus depots, ports or refuse fleet operations with high utilisation and short supply chains — can reach £5.50-6.50 per kilogram dispensed. Contracted depot fleets land at £7.00-7.80. Public corridor stations, facing uncertain demand and higher investment risk, remain at £8-10 per kilogram. Remote or low-volume locations sit above £10.

By 2035, the base scenario projects a dispensed depot price of £5.60-6.30 per kilogram, with an effective customer price of £4.60-5.70.

Station utilisation: the hidden variable

One of the model's strongest insights concerns the impact of station utilisation. At 20 per cent utilisation, fixed costs alone (capital and maintenance) exceed £7 per kilogram before any hydrogen is purchased. At 80 per cent, that drops below £2. The difference between a profitable and a loss-making station lies not in the hydrogen price but in the number of kilograms dispensed each day.

This also explains why buses, refuse vehicles and port fleets are the likely first adopters: a relatively small number of intensively used vehicles can generate sufficient throughput to make a station viable. A public station requires a much larger vehicle park before utilisation becomes bankable.

UK subsidy framework: HAR1 and RTFCs

The UK's support framework rests on two pillars. The Hydrogen Allocation Rounds (HAR) support production: HAR1 has contracted eleven projects totalling 125 MW of capacity at a weighted average strike price of approximately £9.50 per kilogram. HAR2 has 27 projects shortlisted, with up to 875 MW of capacity. HAR3 and HAR4 are planned for 2026 and 2028.

On the demand side, Renewable Transport Fuel Certificates (RTFCs) play a role. Qualifying renewable hydrogen used in transport generates 9.16 certificates per kilogram. At full pass-through, this theoretically yields up to £7.33 per kilogram. In practice, Harper estimates the fleet benefit at £0.75-1.25 per kilogram, as suppliers and aggregators retain part of the value.

Diesel parity by application

Harper also calculates the hydrogen price at which fuel-cost parity with diesel is reached. Refuse vehicles achieve parity at £10.69 per kilogram due to their high diesel consumption. Urban buses at £8.30. Regional HGVs at £6.69 and long-haul trucks at £6.66. Construction equipment only at £5.13 per kilogram.

These are fuel-cost comparisons only — total cost of ownership (TCO) also depends on vehicle premium, financing, maintenance, residual value and infrastructure access.

The lesson for Europe

The analysis confirms a pattern also visible in Germany and the Netherlands: hydrogen does not become affordable through a single national price point. It becomes affordable in local ecosystems where production, logistics, refuelling infrastructure and fleet demand converge. Those waiting for a nationwide price of £6 per kilogram will wait too long. Those building a depot cluster with contracted demand today can reach that price sooner than the national average suggests.

Sources

• Tim Harper, 10 June 2026 — UK Hydrogen Pricing: The Definitive 2026-2035 Guide for Fleets, Infrastructure and Investors
• DESNZ — Hydrogen Allocation Rounds (GOV.UK)
• Hydrogen UK, July 2025 — HAR1 contract signings
• S&P Global Commodity Insights, December 2024 — UK offers first green hydrogen production contracts
• CMS Law, March 2026 — UK hydrogen sector updates: hydrogen production